Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.9600.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.9930.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.9862 and a take-profit at 1.000.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.9750.
The EUR/USD price went sideways on Monday as the US dollar pulled back slightly. It was trading at 0.9800 on Tuesday morning, which was higher than last week’s low of 0.9543. The pair remains sharply lower than last month’s high of 1.0200.
US dollar pulls back
The EUR/USD price recovery paused on Monday and Tuesday morning. This price action happened as investors America’s bond yields retreated and stocks soared. The yield of the American bond yields slipped to 3.65% while the 2-year dropped to 4.1%.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by more than 900 points while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rose by almost 3% each. The VIX index, which is a good measure of market volatility, dropped slightly.
The market was reacting to reduced risks as the new UK administration made a u-turn on its tax cuts for the wealthy. In a statement, Kwasi Kwarteng conceded that the tax cuts would not pass in parliament. These unpopular tax cuts would have cost the British economy between 2 and 3 billion pounds per year.
There will be no major economic data from Europe on Tuesday. The main catalyst for the pair will be a speech by Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB. She will likely reiterate that the bank will continue hiking interest rates in the remaining meetings of the year. Analysts expect at least 125 basis points in rate hikes by the ECB.
The EUR/USD price will react to the latest JOLTs job openings data from the US. Economists expect the data to show that the economy’s job vacancies dropped from 11.23 million in July to 10.7 million in August. The US will also publish the latest factory orders numbers for August.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD price has been in a tight range in the past two days. It is hovering at 0.980, which is slightly below the important level at 0.9862, which was the lowest level on September 6. This means that the pair has formed a break and retest pattern.
It is also slightly above the standard pivot point while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bearish divergence pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bearish trend as sellers target the first support of the standard pivot point at 0.9610.
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