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Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2000.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2155.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2140 and a take-profit at 1.2225.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2050.
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose to the highest level since Wednesday 17 as the US dollar continued retreating. It rose to a high of 1.2150 on Monday, which was significantly higher than this year’s low of 1.0360.
US dollar retreat continues
The GBP/USD price continued its rebound as the US dollar retreated. The closely watched US dollar index, which formed a triple-top pattern in September, October, and November, dropped from the year-to-date high of $114.6 to $105.57.
This decline accelerated after data revealed that the American unemployment rate rose to 3.7% while the inflation rate dropped from 8.3% to 7.7%. It also continued after last week’s minutes by the Bank of England (BoE).
The minutes showed that most of Fed’s officials were supportive of smaller rate increases in the coming meetings. Therefore, most analysts expect that the central bank will slow the pace of hikes by rising by 0.50% in December. After that, the bank will increase interest rates by 0.25% in February and March.
The next key economic data to watch will be the upcoming CFTC COT report, which will come out on Monday. This report shows the positioning of the most important players in the forex market.
It will also react to the upcoming statements by Fed’s James Bullard and John Williams. These officials are expected to reiterate the view that the bank will hike rates by a slower pace than the previous 0.75%.
The other important data will come on Tuesday when the UK will publish the latest mortgage lending and approvals data. Economists expect the data to show that mortgage approvals dropped to a seasonally adjusted 60.20k in October. While these numbers are important, they will not have a major impact on the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD forecast
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. This price is along the upper side of the ascending channel. It has also moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing downwards. It is also above the Ichimoku cloud.
Therefore, the pair will likely retreat in the coming days. If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at 1.200. A move above last week’s high of 1.2150 will invalidate the bearish view.
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