Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and a take-profit at 1.1350.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1600.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.1590 and a take-profit at 1.1650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1500.
The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish trend during the evening and morning sessions as results of Tuesday’s midterm elections streamed in. Sterling was trading at 1.1530, which was slightly above this month’s low of 1.1146.
US dollar index slips
The GBP/USD price continued rising after the closely watched American midterm election. Results released at the time of writing showed that Republicans were heading towards a big Republican win in the House of Representatives. It is still too early to determine whether they will also win the senate.
The US dollar index has retreated in the past few days. After surging to $115 in September, the dollar index slipped to a low of $109.70. It dropped by more than 50 basis points in the overnight session. In the same period, American stocks jumped by over 20 basis points while bond yields slipped.
The GBP/USD pair also rose after the latest statement by Bank of England’s chief economist. In a statement, Huw Pill said that the central bank sought to offer a more realistic view of where rates were moving to.
The BoE raised rates by 0.75% to 3% last Thursday and signaled that it will slow the pace of rate hikes. It warned that the market’s forecast of rates peaking at 5.25% was a bit unrealistic. The bank also said that it will reflect on the upcoming autumn statement.
There will be no major economic data from the US and the UK. Therefore, the main catalyst for the pair will be the results of America’s midterm elections. A Republican win in the senate will solidify the deadlock in Washington.
The next major catalyst will be the upcoming US consumer and producer inflation data. Economists expect that inflation remained at an elevated level in October.
GBP/USD forecast
The GBP/USD pair continued rising in the past few days. It rose above the important resistance level at 1.1492, the highest point on October 4. The pair has moved above the 25-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the overbought level.
The pair seems to be forming a double-top pattern. Therefore, there is a possibility that the pair will pull back in the coming days. If this happens, the key support level to watch will be a 1.1350.
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