The GBP/USD may prove to be a speculative paradise and dangerous gauntlet over the next two days at the same time. Having reached a high last Wednesday of nearly 1.16450 the GBP/USD is now barely traversing above the 1.15100 ratio.
The GBP/USD has seemingly struggled the past week to maintain the positive energy created when the new U.K government was brought forth. But before anyone is blamed for the fall in value of the GBP/USD over the past week, it would be wise to consider the possibility behavioral sentiment generated perhaps a bit too much optimism for the currency pair after the change of leadership.
Whirlwind of Speculative Concerns await GBP/USD Today and Tomorrow
Speculators, to put it bluntly, need to be extremely careful with the GBP/USD near-term. A move lower to support levels, which could prove to be durable around the 1.15000 ratio could prove dangerous for all. On top of this, there are two major risk events about to unfold today and tomorrow for the GBP/USD.
- The U.S Federal Reserve is set to raise its interest rate by another 0.75% later today; if this hike is delivered then traders will turn their attention to the U.S central bank’s stated intentions for the next few months. Will the U.S Fed sound more dovish?
- The Bank of England will announce its Official Bank Rate tomorrow. An increase of 0.75% is expected which would raise the key lending rate to 3.00%.
U.S Mid-Term Elections and British Politics a Factor in the GBP/USD
Besides the additional concerns of U.S mid-term elections next Tuesday which will be held, and the need for clarity from the new U.K government, it is likely the U.S Fed and the BoE will not want to surprise investors today and tomorrow. Calm and clarity are wanted by financial institutions after a rather unsettling past couple of months within the global markets.
The GBP/USD has suffered because of the storms; the boat should not be rocked when it is possible to control. Last week’s move higher which was above the 1.16000 almost comfortably has evaporated, but it may be a sign of things to come. Speculators have ample reasons to bet over the next two days, but they should be ready for a high degree of volatility.
Day traders should be careful with the amount of leverage they use today and tomorrow. However, if a trader wants to wager the GBP/USD is going to rise in the near-term (while suffering choppy reversals lower which can be costly if risk management is not solid) this might be a worthwhile buying wager. The GBP/USD will turn fast later today and price action will remain dynamic tomorrow. Alerts will sound and speculators should prepare.
GBP/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.15200
Current Support: 1.14985
High Target: 1.16100
Low Target: 1.14510
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