- The NASDAQ 100 has dipped during the trading session on Thursday to reach down to the 50-Day EMA.
- Looking at the start, we have bounced rather significantly, and it does suggest that perhaps there is some stubborn bullish pressure out there.
- I do not think we are ready to break down quite yet, but if we do sliced through the hammer, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 10,800 level.
Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 will be influenced by just a handful of stocks, and therefore you need to pay attention to all of the usual suspects such as Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and the like. Ultimately, this is a situation where the market is trying to determine whether or not the 11,700 level is going to offer a certain amount of support as it had offered quite a bit of resistance previously to “market memory.”
Volatility and Choppiness Continue Being Major Players in the Market
On the upside, the 12,000 level above has offered quite a bit of resistance, forming a certain amount of a shooting star. If we can break above the top of the shooting star candlestick from Tuesday, that could open up the possibility of a move closer to the 12,500 level. That’s where the 200-Day EMA, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of a brick wall above. Break above that would obviously be very bullish, just as breaking below the hammer from the Thursday session would be.
On a breakdown below there, we could go to the 10,800 level, which is an area where we had formed a bit of a double bottom underneath, and therefore I think it sets up for a nice target. This is all going to be about interest rate nonsense, as the 10-year continues to suggest that we are going to see an easier Federal Reserve, while the 2-year suggests that the Federal Reserve is going nowhere with its monetary policy. I think we will continue to see a lot of “push/pull”, as the choppy volatility continues to be a major player. It is an option expiration on Friday, so we could have a bit of an erratic session as well, so keep that in mind. The most important thing you can do is keep your position size small.
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