Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) continued to decline in early trading on thursday, to record new daily losses until the moment of writing this report, by -2.37%. It settled at a price of $5.486 per million British thermal units, after declining during trading yesterday by -3.50%.
US natural gas futures fell nearly 4% to their lowest level in a week on Wednesday, on expectations of less cold weather in late November amid continued volatility.
Analysts say the market has been focused heavily on rumors that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas may not return this month because it has not yet submitted a plan to return to service with federal regulators. Gas demand will rise once Freeport returns.
However, Freeport LNG has repeatedly said it still expects the 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bscfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in November after an unexpected shutdown on June 8 due to a pipeline explosion.
Despite recent declines, gas futures are still up about 58% so far this year, as high global gas prices fuel demand for US exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Technically, the price continues to decline amid the dominance of the bearish corrective trend in the short term. With it being affected by breaking a major bullish slope line in the medium term earlier, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period, with the negative pressure continuing to trade below the simple moving average for a period of 50 In the previous days.
In addition, we notice the start of negative signals with the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas of oversaturation with overbought operations. This was exaggerated compared to the price movement, to start forming negative divergence in them, which doubles the negative pressures on its upcoming trades.
Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, to target the pivotal and nearby 5.310 support level in preparation to break it.
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