Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) rose in early trading on Thursday. It achieved new daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 2.41%, settling at a price of $ 6.158 per million British thermal units. This happened after it went up during yesterday’s trading and for the third day in a row, by 1.67%.
US natural gas futures rose yesterday, as concerns about a possible US rail strike boosted gas prices. A rail strike will threaten coal shipments to US facilities, forcing generators to burn more gas.
Gas futures are up 66% so far this year, as higher global gas prices fueled demand for US exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas production in the lower 48 US states has fallen to 99.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 99.4 billion cubic feet per day in October.
With cooler weather approaching, Refinitiv forecasts average US gas demand, including exports, to jump from 122.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 126.6 billion cubic feet per day next week. The forecast for this week was higher than that of Refinitiv on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
- Technically, natural gas continues its cautious ascent despite the dominance of the corrective bearish trend in the short term.
- It is being affected by the breach of a major bullish trend line in the medium term, and it also suffers from the continuation of negative pressure for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days, as shown in the attached chart.
- For a period of time (daily), in addition, we notice that the RSI indicators reached overbought areas, despite the continuation of the influx of positive signals from them.
Therefore, our expectations still suggest a return to the decline of natural gas during its upcoming trading, as long as the 6.412 resistance level remains intact, to target again the 5.310 pivotal support level.
Ready to trade our Natural Gas trading prediction? We’ve made a list of the best commodity broker platforms worth trading with.