- The US dollar has bounced back a bit during the Friday session on thin volume against the Canadian dollar.
- The market is trying to break above the 1.38 level and reached toward the 50-Day EMA.
- It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, because a lack of volume will have made this difficult to read.
Correlation With the Crude Oil Markets
You should keep in mind that the oil markets have struggled, and this of course will weigh upon the value of the Canadian dollar as it is typically used as a proxy for oil in the Forex markets. That being said, we are in a range that still needs to be sorted out, as we could be looking at either a bearish flag, or some type of consolidation range. The 50-Day EMA sits just above, so that could be a bit of resistance just waiting to happen. If we can break above that, then it opens up the possibility of the market going back to the 1.35 handle. The market breaking above their then re-captures the previous neckline, opening up the possibility of a move to the 1.38 level.
If the market breaks down below the 1.33 level, then it’s likely to go down to the 1.32 level. The 200-EMA underneath there should offer support, and if we can break down below there, it’s likely that the market is looking to the 1.30 level. The 1.30 level should be psychologically important, so that of course is something that you need to pay attention to.
One thing that will be closely followed is not only the oil market, but the interest rate situation in the United States. The market going back and forth in this 300 point range makes quite a bit of sense, as this pair is typically choppy to begin with. With that being the case, I suspect it is probably going to be a rather choppy affair, at least until we get the jobs number coming out on Friday. When that announcement comes out, this might be a particularly active pair, because not only do we get the US jobs number, but we also get the Canadian numbers at the same time. In other words, there will be a lot of back and forth based upon central bank expectations between now and the end of the year.
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