As the month of November comes to an end the USD/INR has been able to decline from its apex highs and develop a new price range which will certainly create speculative opportunities for wagers. The USD/INR is now trading around the 81.7100 realm, this after falling to a low of nearly 80.4390 on the 11th of November.
The USD/INR was trading near 83.0200 however in early November, and its fall in value had been highly anticipated by some speculators who believed the currency pair was overbought. Intriguingly, the lows for the USD/INR happened in the second week of November, not last week. The reason this is noteworthy is because many major currencies experienced better values against the USD last week after the U.S Federal Reserve indicated it might pursue a more dovish interest rate policy, which was not the case for the USD/INR.
The USD/INR has not mirrored other Major Currency Pairs Exactly
The climb higher last week in the USD/INR may be rather suspicious and a reason for traders to predict another drop of value may be demonstrated in the currency pair, this if they are contrarians regarding short-term technical charts. The value of the USD/INR is now challenging lower price ratios seen in late September of this year. If the price of the USD/INR can consolidate within its relatively new lower range which does not show a tendency to flirt with the apex highs of October and early November, this may be a bearish signal.
Traders should watch the 82.0000 level up above in the coming week; if it proves durable as resistance it may indicate support levels may begin to prove attractive. The ability of the USD/INR to traverse to the 80.4400 realm in the second week of November was short lived, but it does show that the currency pair does have the capability to track even lower. If current behavioral sentiment in the broad Forex market continues to see a weakening of the USD, the USD/INR is likely to follow suit.
- One way trading avenues are seldom seen in Forex, traders who pursue downward momentum in the USD/INR must guard against reversals upward.
- Global markets remain nervous, the U.S Federal Reserve could still implement more interest rate hikes, so speculators should remain realistic regarding their pursuit of selling positions and use realistic take profits to cash in winning positions.
Consolidated Range of the USD/INR may Deliver Volatility with a Rapid Burst of Value
Since the 16th of November the USD/INR has produced a rather consolidated price range which has largely been between 81.5000 and 81.8500 with occasional outliers. The USD/INR has the ability to produce rapid price changes and the recent tight price action within the currency pair while welcome also may be a sign that volatility is about to erupt again. Things are seldom quiet for long within the USD/INR and traders should be cautious.
USD/INR Outlook for December 2022
Speculative price range for USD/INR is 80.0600 to 82.3400
If the USD/INR is able to break below the 81.6000 mark and sustain its value, traders may believe additional selling could develop. The tight price range seen in the USD/INR the past two weeks underscores that financial houses may be pleased with current equilibrium, but it doesn’t mean that the value range will hold.
The month of December could prove to see more incremental selling of the USD/INR if global behavioral sentiment believes the U.S Fed will become more dovish. If support near the 81.5000 is proven vulnerable the USD/INR could quickly flirt with the 81.3000 to 81.2000 values. A move below the 81.0000 may prove difficult, but the ability of the USD/INR to test lower prices in November should be remembered. Staying realistic with targets as price goals is important, and if a trader is lucky enough to gather profits they should be cashed in before they evaporate into thin air.
Resistance for the USD/INR is intriguing technically. If the 81.9000 level holds it would be noteworthy, but if this resistance level breaks and the 82.0000 mark is seen an additional climb could be produced. Resistance near the 82.1000 may prove quite durable, and if touched may prove to be a catalyst for a reversal lower.
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