The USD/ZAR is trading near the 16.98000 ratio as of this writing. The month of November produced a solid bearish trend for the USD/ZAR which mirrored many major forex pairs teamed against the USD. On the 3rd of November, the USD/ZAR was still challenging long-term highs and was near the 18.53000 mark for a moment. On the 7th of November the USD/ZAR had moved lower and touched the 17.67000 level.
The USD/ZAR has delivered swift price velocity when selling cycles have generated momentum. As always there have been reversals upwards to be dealt with by speculators, but the power of the moves downward have consistently made key support levels look vulnerable over the past four weeks. The ability of the USD/ZAR to remain near the 17.00000 in the near-term will become a focus for traders.
Fragile Global Market Sentiment Remains and the USD/ZAR is a Certain Reflection of this
The USD/ZAR is not moving lower because the South African government has managed to invigorate solid fiscal policy, it is because the USD has gotten weaker based on the notion the U.S Federal Reserve will begin to shift its interest rate policy. Technically the USD/ZAR has reflected the behavioral sentiment of the broad Forex market, and now speculators need to consider six-month charts to gain a better perspective.
The USD/ZAR is flirting with price levels it has not sincerely traded since the middle of September. And if the USD/ZAR continues to incrementally selloff, the currency pair could find that August values which saw a price of 16.73000 challenged. However for this to happen, global markets will need to remain calm and show an appetite for risk. The USD/ZAR does have the ability to move fast and spikes frequently serve as a ‘trick or treat’ for speculators depending on the direction of a chosen wager and developing price action.
- If the 17.00000 sees sustained trading below this ratio, this could ignite further downside pressure if financial houses remain bearish against the USD in the broad Forex markets.
- The 16.81000 level looks to be extremely important support and if it is broken lower could create the notion that the bullish trend upwards within the USD/ZAR may finally be in the rearview window.
USD/ZAR Outlook for December 2022:
Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 16.35000 to 17.58000
The USD/ZAR can deliver quick hitting changes in value and speculators need to remain cautious as they trade the Forex pair. The movement of the USD/ZAR reflects the other major currency pairs quite well and this is not about to change. The bearish trend the past four weeks has produced solid momentum lower, and if the 16.90000 mark were proven vulnerable and trading is sustained beneath this level, this would be quite intriguing. Traders should monitor the sustained price range with the USD/ZAR.
Reversals upwards will occur, but if the current lower price range holds the USD/ZAR could find that support levels from August 2022 are targets below. The USD/ZAR suffered from a powerful move higher since April of this year. While speculators should not get overly ambitious, a move lower back to August values is reasonable to speculate on if the USD remains weaker throughout Forex. But will that happen?
Moves higher can take place in the USD/ZAR. A simple reversal of behavioral sentiment could spark additional buying. If the USD/ZAR were to flirt above the 17.00000 with prices near the 17.10000 level again this would not be earth shattering. However a sudden move upwards to the 17.21000 mark could be a reason for concern. Yet, because of current market sentiment a move beyond the 17.50000 higher does look rather unlikely. Traders should always practice risk management solidly with the USD/ZAR, because it has a habit of moving fast which can be costly if a trade works against a speculative position.
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