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BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to Grind Sideways with no Apparent Urgency

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

At this point, the 50-Day EMA comes into the picture just above and is causing major resistance.

  • The BTC/USD has done almost nothing during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see cryptocurrency do almost nothing.
  • At this point, the 50-Day EMA comes into the picture just above and is causing major resistance.
  • Beyond that, we have the $18,000 level, so I just don’t see an argument to be buying this market. While some people out there will start talking about the fact that we are building a bit of a base, the reality is we don’t have the fundamentals to move this market. Speaking of which, does anybody even know what the fundamentals are anymore?

It used to be hash rate because more people were using the network and therefore it meant that eventually Bitcoin would become needed. However, over time we have seen the hash rate rise, while prices fall. In that scenario, is there really some type of correlation that I can grasp onto? Because of this, I think the hash rate argument is now gone. It used to be that Bitcoin was going to be a hedge against inflation, as central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy, and that inflation was coming down the road. Will we have clearly seen that narrative destroyed as well. Inflation has been raging, and Bitcoin has been falling as a result.

Bitcoin is a Purely Speculative Asset

I remember once they told me it was digital gold, but it’s obvious that it is not digital gold, because gold has been rising as of late, while Bitcoin has done nothing but drift lower. I have also been told that Bitcoin is money, but if it’s money, it is more along the lines of the Argentine peso. The value is far too variable to price anything in it, so it loses that utility as well. Quite frankly, now we must continue to ask questions as to “When will we see an actual use?”

It is because of this that Bitcoin is purely a speculative asset. While there is nothing wrong with that, you need to understand that you have to have the “greater fool theory” in full effect to profit from this market. Because nobody really wants to buy this asset now, the only thing you can be doing is sell to those few that do. This market is going lower.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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