- The BTC/USD market has done very little during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of lackluster momentum.
- At this point, I suspect that we’ve got a lot of noise ahead, especially as risk appetite is all over the place.
- Ultimately, Bitcoin needs a lot of risk on behavior, as the crypto markets are about as far out on the spectrum as you can get when it comes to risk appetite.
At this point, it looks as if the $22,000 level is going to continue to be very difficult, so therefore I think you get a situation where the $22,000 level is the short-term ceiling, especially as it has previously been an area where we had seen quite a bit of resistance. Because of this, think it’s probably only a matter of time before the market will look at that as a major inflection point. If we were to break above there, perhaps above the $22,500 level, then we could take off to the upside. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break down below the $20,000 level, it’s likely that we could break down rather drastically.
We Just Cannot Fall on Bad News
On that move, I anticipate that the Bitcoin market could go down to the $18,000 level, which is the next major support level that the market has previously laid out, and of course, there’s a certain amount of “market memory” there as it was previous resistance. Furthermore, we have the 50-Day EMA hanging around that same area, so it all comes together for some type of support or target.
I think at this point, Bitcoin is waiting around to see whether loose monetary policy is in fact going to be the name of the game. I don’t think that’s so, but the one thing that could make it as far as a bullish argument for Bitcoin is that the market has held relatively stable, and even bullish in the face of a lot of negative news. We have FTX, Gemini, and a handful of other bankruptcy/frauds coming to light that should be bringing the market down. Quite frankly, we just cannot fall on bad news. That is the first sign of recovery, but we also need institutional money to return, something that hasn’t happened quite yet.
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