- The EUR/USD has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it is probably worth noting that the market is going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
- As a result, it would not surprise me at all to see a lot of back-and-forth type of choppy behavior.
- This makes a lot of sense this time of year because a lot of traders will be away from the desk, paying attention to holidays and not so much to trading currencies.
- However, you should also keep in mind that Friday is a big day, as we get the Non-Farm Payroll announcement coming out.
It looks as if the 1.06 level is going to continue to be somewhat important, so if we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the moving averages underneath, with the 50-Day EMA getting ready to cross above the 200-Day EMA near the 1.04 level. In other words, we are in an area where you could see quite a bit of support if we were to pull back to that range. Anything below there probably sends this market much lower, perhaps dropping the Euro down to the parity level.
Choppiness Ahead
If we turn around and take off though, we could see a significant amount of upward pressure that sends this market to the 1.08 level, an area where we have seen a lot of resistance, but if we were to turn around and break out above that level, then the Euro could eventually go looking to the 1.10 level. I don’t think this happens easily, but it is something that we could see given enough time.
I think we get a lot of choppy behavior more than anything else between now and then, but ultimately, we will get a large and impulsive candlestick that we can take advantage of. When that happens, it should give us an idea as to where we are going to go for the next several months. I’m not holding my breath for it to happen now, but by the time we get to the middle of next week, we should see a little bit more in the way of liquidity, and therefore quite a bit more in the way of conviction as to directionality.
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