Advertisement
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0850.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0812 and a take-profit at 1.0900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0750.
The EUR/USD price retreated to the lowest point since January 12 after the weak Chinese economic data and Goldman Sachs results. It dropped to a low of 1.0773, which was lower than this week’s high of 1.0873. The pair will next react to the latest European and American inflation numbers and US retail sales data.
European and US inflation data
The EUR/USD pair declined slightly after China published worrying data from China. In a report, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that the economy grew at the slowest pace in decades in 2022. This decline happened as China implemented strict Covid-19 measures during the year.
The report also showed that the country’s population was shrinking. It now has an aging population, low productivity rate, and high debt levels. China has started working to address some of these issues. It has ended most of its Covid restrictions and allocated over $25 billion to save the real estate sector.
The pair also retreated after Wall Street banks published weak results. Goldman Sachs saw its quarterly profit plunge by 66% year-on-year to $1.3 billion. This happened as its fintech division lost billions of dollars and its investment banking business plunged. It is now laying off 3,200 employees. Other banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America published weak results.
The next key data to watch will be the upcoming European consumer inflation data. Based on the estimates published last week, analysts expect that the headline consumer inflation dropped from -0.1% in November to -0.3% in December. Core inflation is expected to have remained unchanged at 0.6%.
The US will also publish the latest producer price index (PPI) data. Like the CPI numbers that came out last week, analysts believe that PPI declined in December. The other catalyst will be the latest US retail sales and important statements by Fed officials.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pulled back on Tuesday after the relatively weak economic data from China and Goldman Sachs earnings. On the three-hour chart, the pair has formed a triple-top pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. It has also moved below the 25-day moving average and found support at the 50-EMA.
Therefore, while the trend is bullish, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers attempt to retest the support at 1.0717. This is an important level since it was the highest point on December 30th.
Ready to trade our daily Forex signals? Here’s a list of some of the best Forex brokers to check out.