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Bullish view
- Go long the EUR/USD on the 4H chart and set a take-profit at 1.10.
- Place a stop loss at about 1.0750.
- Timeline for the trade: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a stop-loss at 1.0830 and a take-profit at 1.0740.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0950.
The EUR/USD price pulled back ahead of the upcoming European and American flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers. It retreated to 1.0851, a few points below this year’s high of 1.0923. The euro has jumped to the highest level since April 20th.
The upcoming PMI numbers will likely not have a major impact on the pair. Economists expect that the data will show that business activity remained under pressure in January, with the PMIs expected to come in below 50. However, sentiment has likely improved modestly because of the improving natural gas prices in Europe and the USA.
The other important events scheduled for Tuesday will be the German consumer confidence data and a speech by Christine Lagarde.
EUR/USD daily chart analysis
On the daily chart, we see that the EUR to USD has made a strong bullish trend after crashing to a low of 0.9561 on September 27. It is now oscillating at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair has also moved above the descending trendline shown in yellow. Using trend indicators, it has moved along the upper side of the Bollinger Bands.
Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have made a golden cross, which is usually a bullish sign. Therefore, a combination of Fibonacci levels, Bollinger Bands, and golden cross points to more upside for the EUR/USD pair. This means that the pair will likely rise to the next 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point at 1.1231, the highest point since February 28. On the flip side, a rejection of this level could see the pair retest the 38.2% retracement point at 1.0600.
EUR/USD 4H forecast
Turning to the 4H chart, we see that the euro to dollar pair has been in a bullish trend for months. On January 12, the pair managed to cross the important resistance level at 1.0740, the highest level on December 15 last year. Notably, the pair has continually remained above the 65-period moving average. Its previous attempts to move below the level, most recently on January 6 turned out to be a false breakdown.
Therefore, like the daily chart, the outlook of the pair is still bullish, with the next psychological level to watch being at 1.100. This price is about 1.15% above the current level. A rejection of this outlook could see the pair drop to the support at 1.0740.
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