Advertisement
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and add a take-profit at 1.1200.
- Set a sell-stop at 1.0800.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.0830 and a take-profit at 1.0700.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0950.
The euro continued moving sideways as investors continued reading the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) tea leaves after the weak economic data. The EUR/USD price has been stuck at 1.0881 for the most part of this week. This price is about 3.86% above the lowest point in 2023.
EU and US business activity
Data published on Tuesday revealed that business activity in Europe and the US was still under pressure this year. Manufacturing and services PMIs in the two countries remained below 50 in January, signaling that they are still in a contraction mode.
In Europe, the manufacturing PMI came in at 48.8, an improvement from the previous 49.8. In France and Germany, the composite PMs came in at 49 and 49.7, respectively. However, on the positive side, these numbers revealed that business activity in the region was improving helped by the relatively low natural gas prices. Gas prices have crashed to the lowest point in more than two years.
Business activity remained under pressure in the United States, where manufacturing and services PMI number came in below 50. These numbers reinforced what we have seen in the past few weeks as some of the biggest companies in the country announced large layoffs. 3M, the giant manufacturer, laid off over 2,500 workers. Companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have also laid off thousands of people.
ECB and Fed officials have vowed to stay the course on rate hikes. In a recent statement by Lael Brainard, the Fed Vice Chair, she insisted that the bank will continue raising rates until there is enough evidence that inflation was falling. The same view was shared by Philip Lane, the Chief Economist at the ECB.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD price has been in a steady bullish trend in the past few months. It managed to move above 1.0740 on January 12. This was a notable level since this was the upper side of the ascending triangle pattern shown in red. It has remained above this level in almost two weeks. The awesome oscillator has risen above the neutral point.
Therefore, by measuring the distance between the hypotenuse and the upper side of the triangle, we can estimate that the pair has more upside in the near term. More gains will likely see the pair rise to the key level of 1.1050.
Ready to trade our free Forex signals? Here are the best Forex brokers to choose from.