Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0712.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0655 and a take-profit at 1.0720.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0550.
The EUR/USD exchange rate rose slightly after the relatively encouraging European inflation data and after the latest Fed minutes. It rose to a high of 1.0632, which was slightly higher than this month’s low of 1.0517. Focus now shifts to the upcoming American jobs data scheduled for Friday.
European inflation is cooling
Preliminary data published this week showed that consumer and producer prices are edging downwards in Europe. On Tuesday, numbers by the German statistics agency showed that the headline consumer inflation dropped by 0.8% in December. This translated to an annualized increase of 8.6%.
On Wednesday, data from the French statistics office showed that the headline inflation dropped by 0.1% leading to an annualized gain of 5.9%. These inflation numbers came as energy prices dropped across the bloc.
There is a likelihood that this drop in prices will hold at least in the short term. Natural gas prices continued falling as weather forecasters predicted that this winter will be much warmer. Gas for February delivery dropped by 11% on Tuesday to $3.98 per British thermal unit. It has fallen by 50% from the highest point in Summer and where it was a year ago.
Therefore, these encouraging numbers on inflation mean that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not be under too much pressure to tighten. Analysts expect another 0.50% rate hike in February followed by smaller increases thereafter.
Meanwhile, minutes published by the Federal Reserve showed that committee members had mixed feelings about the economy. Some supported more aggressive moves ahead while others advocated caution to prevent a hard landing. Analysts now expect another 0.50% rate hike in February.
The next key catalyst will be the latest job numbers from the US. On Wednesday, data showed that job openings dropped to 10.45 million in November. Economists expect that the economy added over 200k jobs in December while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pair moved sideways after the FOMC minutes. It is consolidating at the 50-period moving average while the Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the neutral point. The pair has also moved slightly below the ascending trendline shown in black. It has also found strong resistance at 1.0712, the highest point last week.
The pair has formed a break-and-retest pattern by retesting the ascending trendline. The outlook of the pair is bearish, with the next key target being at 1.0500. The stop-loss of this trade will be at 1.0700.
Ready to trade our free daily Forex trading signals? We’ve shortlisted the best Forex brokers in the industry for you.