My BTC/USD signal on 13th March produced a profitable long trade.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $27,458, $26,263, or $26,002.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $27,818, $28,846, $29,559, or $29,995.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis ten days ago that the resistance level at $22,797 was holding down the price and looked very likely to be the day’s pivotal point.
I thought that if we got two consecutive higher hourly closes above $22,797, that would suggest the price will likely continue higher to at least $23,629, potentially giving a long trade entry opportunity.
This was a good call, both over the day and as a longer-term swing or position trade, as the price broke strongly above that resistance level giving the consecutive higher hourly closes, continuing to advance over the past 10 days.
Bitcoin has been very bullish during the current US banking crisis and seems to be acting as a safe haven like Gold, which truly is rare behaviour despite what some people think about Bitcoin, seeing it as “digital Gold”- I essentially do not agree.
Weakness in the US Dollar, given tailwind by the long-term bearish trend in the greenback and yesterday’s signal by the Federal Reserve that yesterday’s 0.25% rate hike could be the last rise within the current cycle, is also helping push the price up.
The price reached a new 9-month high immediately following the US rate hike yesterday, but it them fell sharply during Jerome Powell’s commentary which held out the prospect of further hikes, and the increased prospect of a recession due to the banking crisis which remains a danger. However, recent hours have seen the price begin to recover, so the technical picture still looks quite bullish.
Drilling down into the technical picture, bulls should be concerned that the price seems unable to rise above the resistance level at $27,818. If we get a couple of consecutive higher hourly closes today above that level, Bitcoin will look much more bullish.
Bitcoin should be attractive right now to trend and momentum traders, on the long side.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 12:30pm London time.
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