The DAX index has been relatively quiet during the trading session on Wednesday as the markets wait for the FOMC results. That being said, it’s worth noting that the technical analysis for this market is rather bullish, as we have seen a bit of a recovery over the last couple of sessions.
The market pullback all the way to the 200-Day exponential moving average, near the 14,400 level. That’s an area that causes a lot of attention, as the 200-Day EMA is a algorithmically followed indicator by a lot of larger money traders that are involved in longer-term strategies. The fact that we bounce from there and formed a hammer was a very bullish sign, and of course we’ve had a little bit of follow-through since then. Now we find the DAX just above the 50-Day EMA, and it looks as if the market is trying to get to the recent highs, near the 15,600 level. You can see that there had been a lot of negativity there over the last couple of weeks, and therefore it’s difficult to think that we are simply going to slice through that area, but the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will have a ripple effect around the world.
DAX Technical Outlook
- If we can break above the 15,600 level, is very possible that the market could go reaching towards the 16,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that will attract a lot of attention.
- It’s worth noting that the DAX tends to lead the rest of the European Union as it is the “blue-chip index” of the area.
- In other words, if the DAX breaks out to the upside, then it’s likely that we will continue to see other European indices follow suit.
The Federal Reserve surprising the market with loose monetary policy could also be a “risk on event” for markets, therefore European traders would probably follow right along with American ones once we see a positive reaction. On the other hand, if it looks like central banks around the world will continue to be extraordinarily tight, that could work against the DAX. At this point, it looks like short-term pullback should continue to be buying opportunities, at least as long as we can stay above the 200-Day EMA. Staying above that is crucial.
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