- Gold markets have had a very bullish run over the last couple of months, and at this point, a lot of this is going to come down to whether or not there is going to be significant fear out there to drive gold higher.
- While we have seen interest rates drop a bit and that of course helps gold, the reality is that the market has been extended for a while as traders have been looking for some type of way to protect their wealth.
- I anticipate that we will have more bullish pressure for gold going forward, but it will not be an easy road higher.
The first and most obvious issue is going to be the fact that just above the $2000 level, there has been significant resistance multiple times. Because of this, I do think it is probably only a matter of time before we get some type of pullback, but that pullback will more likely than not end up being a nice buying opportunity. After all, you have to keep in mind that with so many different institutions failing, it makes a lot of sense that traders would like gold at this point. If we break down below the $1900 level, it’s very likely that in summer between there in $1800, we would see a complete turnaround and the market rallying to the upside.
However, if central bankers around the world, and to a lesser extent regulators, can convince investors that everything is fine, then it’s possible that gold loses some of its lusters. That being said, I’m not holding my breath for that, because we are clearly heading toward some type of financial crisis. There is a major concern when it comes to credit markets around the world, as there is more and more stress as interest rates continue to be raised.
Another thing to keep in mind is that major central banks around the world continue to buy gold, so that does provide a little bit of a floor in the markets regardless. Ultimately, it would take a complete shift in the overall psyche of the market to become a seller of gold, although clearly, we are near an area where we would see a lot of pressure. However, if the market were to break above the $2100 level, it could open up a flood of buying pressure.
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