The USD/CAD is trading near the 1.37600 ratio as of this writing, the currency pair has traded above the 1.37700 level earlier in the morning. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell crushed the hopes of speculators who were wagering on ‘moderate’ testimony before the U.S Senate yesterday.
Instead of calming investors’ nerves, the Federal Reserve chief essentially poured more cold water on the broad marketplace. Powell remained vigilant about inflation worries and suggested the U.S central bank could get more aggressive than anticipated.
The USD/CAD was trading slightly below the 1.36000 level yesterday, when financial houses suddenly began to show nervousness which then erupted into volatile buying of the USD. The Canadian Dollar correlated to the broad Forex market, as the USD/CAD mirrored most major currencies as it soared and bulls ruled the day.
Bullish Trend Resumes in the USD/CAD and Betting Against it is Dangerous
Traders who believed the Federal Reserve would have to begin moderating its aggressive hawkish stance yesterday publically were delivered a stiff rebuke, and one that likely proved costly for traders caught on the wrong side of momentum. This coming Friday the U.S will release its Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings reports which could make matters worse.
Coincidently when the U.S Fed raised interest rates and sounded hawkish on the 1st of February, it was only a couple of days before the jobs report which surprised to the upside. Which raises the question, what does the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell know that they are not disclosing fully?
The USD/CAD is trading at highs not seen since early November in 2022. Yesterday’s surge higher easily penetrated technical resistance perspectives using this January’s highs as targets, which in theory many may have been believed could ignite reversals lower. The Fed Chairman’s stark warning about higher interest rates to come, seems to suggest the U.S central bank may actually consider a Federal Funds rate of 5.75% a possibility.
U.S Average Hourly Earnings need to be watched this Coming Friday
- If the U.S jobs data proves strong again and the Average Hourly Earnings somehow come in higher than expected, this could send another shock wave through Forex and affect the USD/CAD.
- The near-term may prove tranquil and a slight consolidation may develop as financial houses brace for the Non-Farm Employment Change statistics and inflation numbers this Friday.
Risk management will be essential in the short-term for USD/CAD traders. The currency pair is testing important highs and speculators looking for more upside as they try to ride momentum upwards need to be careful. The jobs report coming from the U.S this Friday is going to cast a cautious shadow on Forex. However, volatility as the USD/CAD traverses this higher price range is also likely. Traders looking for reversals lower should be extremely cautious too and use narrow take profit targets.
Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.37725
Current Support: 1.37435
High Target: 1.38105
Low Target: 1.37220
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