My previous BTC/USD signal on 27th March produced a nicely profitable longer-term long trade from the bullish pin bar’s rejection of the support level which I had identified at $26,687.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $30,030, $29,785, $29,679, or $29,316.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $30,534 or $33,445.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis that some kind of breakout from the then-dominant consolidating triangle chart pattern was likely to happen soon. I was looking to trade the breakout.
I said that if we got two consecutive lower hourly closes below $27,250 traders could take that as a signal to go short. Unfortunately, this was a bad, losing trade, and based on the price action and the rejection of key support, I would not have taken it.
I also said that on a higher timeframe, zoomed out price chart, Bitcoin looked quite bullish due to the long-term trend. I was right about this at least as after breaking down and bouncing at $26,687 the price rose firmly over the next days to eventually reach highs above $30k that had not been seen in well over 6 months.
This was a bullish situation, but over recent days we have seen a classic bearish topping formation where the price was sold off again and again from its highs above $30k. The finally sent the price decisively lower, but yesterday saw a strong bullish comeback and the price is again in the area near where it tends to sell off.
Fortunately, as the situation is confusing with a long-term bullish trend facing bearish pressure, we do have a key resistance level which seems to be the last one likely to hold the price back from a further breakout to new long-term highs, at $30,534.
If we get two consecutive hourly closes later above $30,534 then I will enter a long trade, hoping for a renewed bullish run to at least $33,445.
Alternatively, a decisive bearish rejection of $30,534 could give another good short trade opportunity.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.
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