My previous BTC/USD signal on 25th April might have produced a losing short trade from the initial minor bearish rejection of the resistance level which I had identified at $28,358.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $28,740, $27,874, or $26,687.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $29,531, $30,030, or $30,534.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis a couple of days ago that the support level at $26,687and the resistance level at $27,874 were likely to be strong.
I was wrong about the resistance level, so this was not a very good call. We saw strong upwards price movement over the day.
The price continued to rise yesterday, again testing the resistance level which I had identified at $30,030 before falling back sharply right at that peak. Over this time, we saw a big expansion in volatility also, as trading in Bitcoin heated up. This is partly due to an increase in institutional analysts seeing Bitcoin as having already put in a major bottom which is now going to hold for some time.
We now see less bullish and more ranging price action on abnormally high volatility, suggesting we are going to see the price chop around and probably consolidate today on high volatility. However, another bullish test of $30,030 is not out of the question.
I think a long trade from $28,740 while being quite to take profits especially at the first resistance level, could be the best trade to set up today.
Another bearish rejection of $30,030 could be a very attractive signal for a short trade entry.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be releases of Advance GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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