Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1050.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0880.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1035.
The EUR/USD recovery continued its recovery as the US dollar weakness continued. The pair jumped to a high of 1.0974, the highest point since February 2. It has risen by ~4.11% from its lowest point this year while the US dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest point since February 3.
Euro recovery continues
The EUR/USD pair has been in a bullish trend after bottoming at 1.0515 in March. This rally coincided with a sharp decline of American bond yields and the US dollar. The 10-year bond yield dropped to 3.35% while the 2-year and 30-year dropped to 3.87% and 3.60%, respectively.
This performance is likely a sign that investors believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) has more room to run than the Federal Reserve. In their March meeting, the Fed decided to hike rates by 0.25% while the ECB hiked by 0.50%. The two banks have hinted that they will hike again in May considering that the banking sector crisis has cooled.
A key challenge for the Fed and ECB is that the price of crude oil is rising, with Brent trading at $85. West Texas Intermediate is trading at $80. This rebound happened after OPEC+ announced that it will slash production by more than 1.7 million barrels.
Higher oil prices will likely complicate the inflation situation. Data published on Friday showed that the bloc’s inflation remained high. In some countries, like Spain, low gas prices pushed inflation sharply lower.
The key data to watch on Wednesday will be the European and American services and composite PMI numbers. Unlike the manufacturing PMI figure, analysts expect that the services sector did well in March. The other data will be the ADP nonfarm employment change numbers and US trade figures.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong upward trend in the past few weeks. It has managed to move above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. The pair also moved to the upper side of the Bollinger Bands. At the same time, the MACD has moved above the neutral point while the Stochastic Oscillator has risen to the overbought level.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising, with the next target being at 1.1028, the highest point on February 2. Still, a minor pullback cannot be ruled out as some buyers start taking profit.
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