Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 12750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2550.
The GBP/USD exchange rate moved sideways as concerns about the banking sector continued. It was trading at 1.2462, where it has been in the past few days. This price was a few points below the year-to-date high of 1.2547.
US dollar index retreats
The US dollar index pulled back even after the strong economic data from the United States. On Tuesday, housing numbers showed that prices rose in February after falling in the past few months. Additional data showed that building permits dropped by 7.7% in March, better than the expected drop of 8.8%. Further, new home sales jumped by 9.6% in March.
And on Wednesday, data showed that durable goods orders jumped in March after dropping in the previous months. Core durable goods orders rose by 3.2% on a year-on-year basis and by 0.3% on a MoM basis. This increase was better than what analysts were expecting. The statistics agency cited an increase in aviation products.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking interest rates in May. Expectations are that the bank will hike rates by 0.25% in May and then take a strategic pause.
The only risk for this view is if the banking crisis continues in the coming months. This week, First Republic Bank shares crashed by more than 60% after the company revealed that it lost over $100 billion in deposits. As such, risks of more bank failures could dissuade the Fed against implementing more rate hikes.
There will be no economic data from the UK on Thursday. Therefore, the pair will react to the upcoming news from the US. The key data from the country will be the first estimate of the first quarter GDP followed by pending home sales and jobless claims data.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. In this period, it has struggled to retest the key resistance point at 1.2547, the highest point this month. It has moved slightly above the 25-period moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly above the neutral point at 50.
Therefore, the outlook of the pair is neutral, with the next key resistance point at 1.2547. A move above the key resistance point at 1.2547 will mean that bulls have prevailed. A drop below the key support at 1.2420 will invalidate the bullish view.
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