On Tuesday of this week the USD/CAD briefly challenged the 1.34050 vicinity and after moving higher, then tested support near the 1.34245 ratio a few times yesterday. In early trading this morning the USD/CAD is slightly higher still and is near the 1.34825 area. The USD/CAD however has demonstrated a rather solid bearish trend since the 24th of March when the Forex pair touched a high around the 1.38070 level.
Coming Few Days of Trading in the USD/CAD could Produce Sudden Volatility
Traders need to understand that today will likely be the last big trading day of the week for the USD/CAD and most major currency pairs. The approaching long holiday weekend will shutter many global financial institutions starting Friday and some will remain closed on Monday. Traders who are allowed to pursue the USD/CAD tomorrow on their brokers platforms need to consider that volumes will be low and this may cause very slow moving results, which then can be punctuated by sudden violent moves if a large order has sudden been initiated.
The USD/CAD today will deal with Canadian Employment Change statistics and U.S weekly Unemployment Claims. Tomorrow will see the publication of U.S Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings numbers. Today and tomorrow’s data combined with the approaching Good Friday and Easter holidays are sure to cause reactions mixed with potentially vulnerable trading volumes within the USD/CAD.
The Bearish Momentum in the USD/CAD has correlated to the Broad Forex Market
- The ability of the USD/CAD to move lower in the past week and half has mirrored the results of other major currency pairs.
- U.S ISM Services numbers came in weaker than anticipated yesterday and so did the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change results. However, the USD/CAD traded higher which can be considered odd.
- Weaker than expected U.S data may continue to feed into the notion the U.S Federal Reserve will soon have to re-consider its hawkish monetary policy and begin to stop being aggressive with interest rate hikes.
The rather cautious upwards movement generated in the USD/CAD early this morning, may prove to start displaying sideways price action and the potential for another move lower exists. Financial houses will certainly want to be conservative regarding their USD/CAD positions today and so should day traders, because of tomorrow’s important U.S data which will be unleashed into a rather empty Forex landscape.
The slightly higher moves now being generated may start to see some speculators start to wager on downside movement occurring. Traders who decide to participate in the near-term should be ready for violent conditions as positions are wagered on today if volumes spike, this before tomorrow’s holiday which will close many trading houses.
Canadian Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.34910
Current Support: 1.34725
High Target: 1.35410
Low Target: 1.33910
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