Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6800.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6721 and a take-profit at 0.6625.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
The Australian dollar held steady after the strong American non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. It remained at 0.6700, the highest point since April 20th. This price was ~2.66% above the lowest point this month. The focus now shifts to the upcoming US inflation numbers.
Odds of more Fed hikes
The main news last week was the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. In it, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.25%, the tenth increase since last year. The increase pushed interest rates to the highest level in more than a decade.
In his statement, Jerome Powell said that the bank will not consider a rate cut this year. Now, there are worries that the Fed will decide to hike again when it meets in June. For one, data published on Friday showed that the labor market was highly resilient in April.
The economy added 253k jobs in April even as other data showed that the economy was cooling. That was the best increase since January this year. At the same time, the jobless rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest point since 1969.
Wages also held quite well as companies competed for workers. Average hourly wages increased by 0.,5% to $33.36. They rose by 4.4% on a year-on-year basis.
The next key news to watch will come from the US, which will publish the latest consumer inflation data on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that inflation rose from 0.1% to 0.4% in April. On a YoY basis, they expect that inflation remained at 5.0%.
The recent trends in the energy market will help lower inflation. Crude oil prices have crashed to the lowest level in more than a year even as OPEC+ slashes production.
The other important AUD/USD news will be the upcoming Australian retail sales scheduled for Tuesday. Traders will also watch the state of America’s regional banks.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days and is now hovering at the second resistance of the Woodie pivot point. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages.
Further, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have continued rising. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the third resistance point at 0.6810. Any pullback will be a good entry point for Bulls.
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