Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 25,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 27,400 and a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 26,000.
The BTC/USD pair was flat during the Asian session as Bitcoin’s volume and trading volatility slumped. Bitcoin was still hovering at the key level at $27,000, where it has been in the past few days. This price is about $4,000 below the highest level this year.
Bitcoin volatility slips
The volume of Bitcoin traded in centralized and decentralized exchanges (DEX) has continued dropping in the past few days. This decline started two weeks ago when Binance suspended Bitcoin trading briefly because of congestion in the ecosystem.
At the same time, people who bought BTC during the recent bull run have started exiting their investments because of fear that the coin could slump below $25,000 soon.
Still, despite all this, there are several positive signs that could push Bitcoin prices higher. For example, there are signs that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hikes since the American and global economies are slowing.
Data published on Tuesday showed that the country’s economic recovery was happening at a slower pace than expected. The youth unemployment rate has jumped while industrial production and fixed assets investments rose at a slower pace than expected in April.
In the United States, data showed that retail sales rose at a slower pace than expected in April. Retail sales rose by 0.4% from a month earlier and by 1.60% from the same period in 2022. Inflation in the country remains at an elevated level.
Therefore, there is a possibility that the Fed will not hike interest rates again this year, which is a positive thing for Bitcoin.
The other potential catalyst for the BTC/USD pair is the banking crisis, which experts belief is not yet over. Most regional banks have significant exposure to commercial real estate and are expected to have low returns.
BTC/USD forecast
Bitcoin’s volume and volatility have dropped sharply in the past few days. For example, the Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to the lowest level since April 18. The ATR is one of the best measures of volatility. Further, the volume has been falling while the pair remains below the 25-period moving average.
The BTC/USD pair is consolidating at key support since this price coincides with the lowest point on April 24. Therefore, while there are some bullish catalysts in the longer term, a retest of this month’s low of 25,765 cannot be ruled out. A move below that level will see the pair drop to 25,000.
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