The current strong upward path for the USD/JPY currency pair, which tested the 138.91 resistance level, before settling around 138.50 at the time of writing, will strengthen or vice versa if the content of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve abandons the tone of tightening its policy. On the other hand, the Japanese central bank is still sticking to its easing policy to stimulate the Japanese economy.
On the other hand, affecting the performance of the currency pair. Former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said an agreement is within reach on a debt deal to avert a catastrophic US debt default. Speaking in an interview Tuesday in Doha on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum, Mnuchin said US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are "coming closer."
Optimism that an agreement will be reached soon is growing even as time is short.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it was "highly likely" that her department would run out of sufficient money in early June and that a default could come as soon as June 1. Although they described their discussions as fruitful and pledged to continue negotiating. Overall, the current standoff over the debt ceiling has the potential to put more pressure on the US economy, which is already weak after a series of US interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
Mnuchin, now a managing partner at Liberty Strategic Capital, believes the Fed is "pretty much done" with one rate hike and may introduce another one. He added that the market's expectations regarding the US central bank's reduction in borrowing costs may be "a bit aggressive." Mnuchin added that the US economy will certainly slow in the coming months as a result of higher interest rates and faster inflation, although a recession could be avoided. "It's going to be a close call whether we call it a recession or not," he added.
In the medium term, the recovery of the global economy is likely to lead to higher oil prices, according to Mnuchin. The former Treasury secretary also said that there is a lot more interest now from American investors in the Persian Gulf than there was before, particularly surrounding energy expansion.
Forecasts of the US dollar against the Japanese yen today:
- The general trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish.
- The chance for the bulls to move towards the 140.00 psychological resistance level is strong, especially if the US Federal Reserve's tone today is tough.
- On the contrary, the currency pair may be exposed to profit-taking sales in the event that the US central bank abandons its tightening tone temporarily.
- I still prefer to buy the currency pair from every downward level.
The closest support levels for the USD/JPY pair are currently 137.40 and 136.00, respectively.
Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best online forex trading platform worth trading with.
