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Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6825.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6725.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6745 and a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
The AUD/USD pair pulled back on Tuesday after it jumped to the key resistance level at 0.6800. It retreated after the US published weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. The pair was trading at 0.6765 on Wednesday morning.
Australian Jobs and Federal Reserve decision
The AUD/USD price rose sharply and then pulled back after the US published good consumer inflation data. According to the statistics agency, the headline consumer inflation dropped from 4.9% to 4.0% in May. It dropped from 0.4% to 0.1% on a month-on-month basis.
The core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile products, remained unchanged at 0.4%. This translated to a 5.3% YoY increase. Therefore, these numbers mean that American inflation is on its way to hitting the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%.
Therefore, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will decide to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The bank has hiked rates in the past ten meetings straight. It has also embarked on an expansive quantitative tightening program.
The expected pause by the Fed is a divergence of what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did last week. In its meeting, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% for the second straight meeting and the RBA chair warned that more hikes are coming.
The AUD/USD pair will also react to the upcoming Australian jobs numbers and the Chinese growth data. Economists believe that the country’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in May. They also expect that the economy added over 15k jobs in May.
China will also publish the latest industrial production, fixed investment, unemployment rate, and retail sales numbers on Thursday. These numbers are important for China and the United States because of the vast volume of trade between the three countries.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has jumped by more than 4.76% from the lowest level since May 31st. The pair has jumped above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.
It rose to a high of 0.6802, the highest point on May 8th of this year. It has formed a V-shaped pattern or a cup and handle pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely consolidate in this range and then have a bullish breakout in the coming days.
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