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AUD/USD Forex Signal: Lower Inflation Triggers Drop

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

May have found support above $0.6600.

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My previous signal on 20th June produced a profitable long trade from the bullish pin bar / doji which rejected the support level identified at $0.6756.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6667, $0.6682, or $0.6708.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6610, $0.6582, or $0.6560.
  • Place stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast that the AUD/USD currency pair had a bearish outlook, but this was in doubt as the level at $0.6757 had been firmly supportive for a while, so I thought a long trade there could be a good opportunity. This was a great call as we did get a bullish bounce at that level which provided a long trade entry that reached a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1 to 1.

The picture here is dominated by the Australian Dollar right now following the release a few hours ago of lower-than-expected Australian inflation data – markets were expecting the annualized rate to fall to 6.1% but it fell beyond that, to 5.6%. This makes rate hikes less likely and so the Australian Dollar fell quite sharply, with the price of this currency pair reaching a new 3-week low price near $0.6600.

The price seems to have carved out a short-term bottom at $0.6618 a few hours ago, and it has risen weakly from this area, with the rise now seeming to run out of steam.

I think it makes sense, given the inflation data and the medium-term bearish trend, to look for a short trade entry here today, but only if the price reaches the area of likely resistance at $0.6667 and prints a firm bearish reversal there.

AUD/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the AUD or the USD.

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Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

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