- The GBP/JPY exhibited back-and-forth movements in Thursday's trading session as it built up pressure below the ¥175 level. The market's attempt to break above this level holds the potential for further upside gains.
- Should the breakthrough occur, it is likely to open the path for a more sustained upward move. In such a scenario, a "buy-and-hold" strategy may be suitable, particularly in the longer term.
- The bullish nature of the Thursday candlestick suggests the presence of buyers willing to enter the market at favorable levels.
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The ¥170 level is noteworthy, as it aligns with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average and has held importance in the past. This level also possesses psychological significance due to its round figure. Consequently, it can be viewed as a potential floor in the market, assuming the market even reaches that level.
Considering all factors, the market is expected to exhibit noisy behavior. However, given sufficient time, an upside breakout appears probable, given the substantial interest rate differential between the British pound and the Japanese yen. Interest rate differentials remain a major driver in currency markets, and this dynamic is likely to influence this particular market significantly.
The Pound Continues to Build Pressure
Another element to consider is the influence of risk appetite on this currency pair. The Japanese yen is often regarded as a safe-haven currency, meaning that fluctuations in overall risk sentiment can impact its movement. Therefore, monitoring global risk appetite is essential in understanding potential developments in this pair.
Given the prevailing dynamics, shorting this market does not appear favorable until a breakdown below the ¥170 level occurs, representing the minimum threshold for a bearish bias. With this, I think we will likely become a “buy and hold” market more than anything else going forward.
In the end, the British pound continues to build pressure below the ¥175 level, with the potential for an upside breakout. A breakthrough could trigger further buying interest and pave the way for sustained upward movement. The ¥170 level, alongside the 50-Day EMA, holds significance as a potential floor in the market. Interest rate differentials and risk appetite should be closely monitored, as they can significantly influence this currency pair. At this point, shorting the market is not recommended until a breakdown below ¥170 occurs. It is almost impossible to think of this market falling, but anything is possible.
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