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TRY/USD Forecast: Stability of the Turkish Lira Amid the Eid Holidays

By Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

The Turkish Central Bank raised interest rates during last Thursday's meeting by 650 basis points, which are lower levels than market expectations, which contributed to the further weakening of the Turkish lira.

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Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

The risk is 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 25.50 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 25.25 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the remaining contracts until the strong resistance level at 26.00.

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 26.00 levels
  • The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 26.15.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 25.50

The exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar stabilized during early trading today, Thursday morning, to witness the second temporary halt in a series of strong rises that continued for several weeks. The efforts of the new economic team appointed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued to balance between shifting to a traditional monetary policy based on monetary tightening as part of the bank's fight against high inflation, and controlling the declines of the lira, which recorded strong losses over the past two months.

The Turkish Central Bank raised interest rates during last Thursday's meeting by 650 basis points, which are lower levels than market expectations, which contributed to the further weakening of the Turkish lira. At the same time, reports mentioned a trend within the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Turkey to extend the tax exemption for deposits protected in Turkish lira until the end of this year, which are deposits introduced by the Turkish president’s regime about a year and a half ago to control the lira’s declines and reduce the demand for foreign currencies. Reports indicate that the economic team What is new in the country is working to gradually cancel these deposits, as it is preferable not to interfere directly in the financial markets. During the current days, we may not witness many economic updates in conjunction with the holidays in the country, in which no measures will be taken that would significantly affect the course of the Turkish currency.

TRY/USD Technical Analysis

On the technical level, without changes, the price of the dollar stabilized against the Turkish lira during early trading this morning, as the pair witnessed slight changes near its all-time highs, amid a continuous wave of strong rise that lasted for nearly a month, during which the dollar pair recorded new highs. On a daily basis. Currently, the pair is trading around 26.05 levels, above the support levels that are concentrated at 26.00 and 25.50, respectively.

 The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 27.00. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. The effect of the tightening by the Turkish Central Bank on the lira price, which is expected to record further declines, is expected to be delayed. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

USD/TRY

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Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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