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Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 31,300.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 29,900 and a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
Bitcoin remained above $30,000 in the overnight session as the recent consolidation continued. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 30,500 on Thursday morning, a few points below the year-to-date high of 31,382.
Bitcoin has done well even as the crypto industry faces significant headwinds. The biggest headwind is on regulations. In June, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to sue Binance and Coinbase.
Binance has also faced major challenges from several Western countries. Its Australian offices were raided by the Australia Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC). The company has also withdrawn from the Netherlands and is being investigated in the Netherlands.
On the positive side, the volume of Bitcoin traded in exchanges has started rising in the past few weeks. Also, there is a possibility of the SEC accepting one of the recent ETF proposals. If this happens, there will likely be inflows from institutional investors.
BTC/USD forecast (daily chart)
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has moved sideways in the past few days. In this period, the pair has formed a bullish flag pattern, which I have indicated in orange. This flag pattern is also happening at an important level since it was at its highest level on April 14th.
The pair has moved above the 50-day moving average while the Average True Range (ATR) has moved to the lowest level since June 20th. The ATR is one of the most important measures of volatility.
Therefore, the next Bitcoin move will be dictated by a move above the year-to-date high of 31,382. If this happens, the price will likely continue rising as buyers target the next important level at 32,500.
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