My previous EUR/USD signal on 4th July was not triggered, as the bullish price action took place a bit below the support level identified at $1.0899.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today.
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1089 or $1.1125.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1026, $1.0994, $1.0973, or $1.0944.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 4th July, I wrote that the price may drift down to the nearest support level at $1.0874. A long scalp might be a potential trade there, but I thought this would be unlikely to work out well due to the major US public holiday.
This was a pretty good call as the price did continue to drift down over the day to just a couple of pips above $1.0874 before making a temporary bullish bounce.
The technical picture now is much more bullish, due mainly to the general and prolonged weakness of the US Dollar, which has accelerated since Friday last week. US inflation data which will be released later today is expected to show a sharp drop to 3.1%, which if true will continue the strong fall we have seen here in recent months. This is helping to weaken the greenback, and the Euro is one of the major beneficiaries, although the British Pound and Japanese Yen are stronger.
The price has risen to approach an area which is also a long-term high and has in recent hours broken above $1.1026 which now looks likely to act as support. If the price holds up above that level it will be a bullish sign, but all technical signs right now could be very temporary, as the release of the US CPI data can easily overcome all technical factors.
I think the best opportunity that will be likely to arise in this currency pair today will be a bullish bounce at a support level following the CPI data release, which would give a good long trade entry opportunity.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR.
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