- The US dollar’s gains stopped before announcing the US Federal Reserve’s policy decisions later today, which allowed the gold price to rebound upwards, with gains that affected the $1971 resistance level, which is stable near it at the time of writing the analysis.
- With the start of the week’s trading, it was exposed to selling operations that pushed it towards the support level 1952 dollars an ounce.
- The future of tightening the policy of the US Federal Reserve will determine the fate of the US dollar and at the same time affect the performance of the gold price.
Commenting on the performance of the gold market. “Gold is expected to be in range-bound trading ahead of the Fed’s decision,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note to Reuters.
“The market will be watching Powell’s speech, and if it appears that he is likely to lean towards raising interest rates again, that will be bad news for gold,” he added.
In general, the focus is now on the series of meetings of global central banks this week, starting with the US monetary policy decision today, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan at the end of the week's trading. Markets expect a 25 basis point rate hike from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, but investors will wait for clues to the outlook from policymakers, especially from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
On another note affecting sentiment, China's top leaders pledged on Monday to intensify political support for the economy, with a focus on boosting domestic demand.
Last week, investment firm Haywood Securities maintained its bullish stance towards the gold market despite the market being affected by the prolonged fluctuations in economic data during the second quarter. For this year and the year after, Haywood analysts forecast gold prices at $2025 and $2200 an ounce respectively, higher than the average market forecast of $1924 and $1913 an ounce.
Gold Technical Outlook
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the gold price is still in an upward retracement path, and as I mentioned, the resistance levels 1972 and 1985 dollars will remain strength factors for the return of expectations towards the psychological top of $2000 again. This may happen quickly if the US dollar is negatively affected today by decisions and a statement Policy and statements of the US Federal Reserve Bank Governor.
On the other hand, over the same period of time, and in the event that the US Federal Reserve Bank reaffirms that it is determined to continue raising interest rates until the bank’s goal for US inflation is reached, the price of gold may be subject to selling operations, and the most important support levels in the event of this happening will be 1948 and 1930 dollars, respectively.
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