- At the beginning of this week's trading, the price of the EUR/USD completed its downward path with stronger losses, reaching the support level of 1.0874, its lowest in five weeks, before settling around 1.0915 at the time of writing.
- The currency pair may witness more losses that may push it below the psychological support of 1.08 in the coming days if the euro and renminbi correct downwards, or if the risks arising from the US and Chinese economic figures of the single European currency crystallize.
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The single European currency - the Euro - remained lower around the middle of a two-month range against the dollar throughout the past week but broke below a significant level of technical support at 1.0954 on the charts during Monday's trading and ahead of a busy schedule of triple risks in the economic calendar. Domestic highlights include the German ZEW survey of investor sentiment on Tuesday as well as the subsequent releases of the second estimate of economic growth in the fourth quarter and the second reading of eurozone inflation rates for July on Wednesday and Friday respectively.
European employment figures and the latest trade balance update are also due on Wednesday and Thursday, but for the euro-dollar rate, the more important factors may be Tuesday's release of last month's US retail sales figures as well as an earlier wave of Chinese economic figures and price action in EUR/ CNH.
The dollar and the euro's reactions to positive and negative US economic data have been mixed in recent weeks, making the market's response to today's US retail sales data crucial, but more important for EUR/USD might be the Chinese economic data due. Today and the renminbi exchange rate in response. This is partly due to entrenched pessimism in and around the market when it comes to the outlook for the Chinese economy and the ongoing contraction in the residential real estate market, but also due to the support that EUR/USD appears to have received from the bullish trend in EUR/USD CNH over recent months.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD initially benefited in late July while the US dollar sold off when Chinese GDP, fixed-asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales figures for June revealed signs of recovery in some parts of the economy but the euro pairs It later fell when the renminbi itself rebounded from earlier losses. The recent market response is likely something to be seen again today and in the following days if the latest data provides any hint of an economic recovery in the making, particularly given how negative market sentiment has been around the Chinese economic outlook.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair is still bearish, and the opportunity to move towards the psychological support 1.0800 is listed, especially if the German ZEW reading comes out today, in addition to the concern about the weakness of the largest economy in the eurozone. It was offset by positive figures for US retail sales. This move will push the technical indicators toward strong oversold levels. It is best to buy from it and from the lowest without risk, with consolidation deals, until the euro gains positive momentum or dollar sales occur.
On the other hand, and for the same period of time, the bulls will not control the trend without moving towards the resistance level at 1.1120, and this requires stability above 1.10 again.
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