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EUR/USD
The EUR/USD initially tried to rally a bit during the week but struggled near the 200-Week EMA. By turning around the way we have, it looks like we are going to threaten the 1.09 level underneath. That being said, I think we are going to continue to see a lot of back and forth, as the ECB and the Federal Reserve both look like they are going to be tight with monetary policy. Furthermore, it’s August, so a lot of traders aren’t even going to be bothered.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD initially tried to rally during the course of the week as well but found the 200-Week EMA to be major resistance as well, and turning around the way we have, we are threatening the 1.2650 level underneath. 1.2650 level underneath is an area that’s been important a couple of times in the past, so to be interesting to see how this plays out. If we were to break down below the 1.2550 level, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the 50-Week EMA. On the other hand, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick for the week, I could open up a move to the 1.30 level after that.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY has shot straight up in the air during the course of the week, looking toward the ¥145 level. The ¥145 level is an area that has been resistant previously, and therefore it’s likely that we could continue to go even higher, perhaps reaching the ¥146.55 level, maybe even the ¥147.50 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should continue to attract buyers, as the interest rate differential between the two currencies should continue to send the market much higher.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD had a positive week during the last handful of days. That being said, the market seems to have seen a bit of noise near the 1.35 handle, and therefore you need to keep an eye on that as potential resistance. If we can break above there, then the market could go looking to the 1.3750 level. A short-term pullback at this point in time could make a certain amount of sense, and I believe that the 50-Week EMA and the 1.33 level should offer support as well. That being said, pay close attention to oil, because the Canadian dollar is highly sensitive to that market.
Silver
Silver has collapsed during the week but still sits above the crucial $22 level. For myself, $22 is where the “rubber meets the road.” If we were to break down below there, then the market is likely to continue dropping to the $20 level. On the other hand, if we bounce from here, then it’s likely that we could go looking toward the $24 level. A lot of this may come down to the usual negative correlation to the US dollar in general.
Gold
Gold markets have fallen pretty significantly during the week as well, but are testing a potential trendline. All things being equal, the 38.2% Fibonacci level will offer support, right along with the 50-Week EMA, hanging around the $1900 level. If we do bounce from here, it’s probably going to be a slow grind to the upside. On the other hand, if we break down below the $1900 level, gold will more likely than not try to “reset” near the $1800 level.
Copper
Copper has fallen a bit during the course of the trading week, falling down toward the $3.75 level. There is a significant amount of support in this neighborhood, but the reason I point out copper is that it is such a huge indication of how the global economy is behaving. At this point, certainly looks negative, so this could be a little bit of a heads up as to where stock markets go. On the other hand, if we turn around about some here, then we could go looking toward the 50-Week EMA, near the $3.88 level. Perhaps more likely, traders will jump into stocks if copper starts to rally.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 has had a tough week, initially trying to break above the 15,250 level, before turning around and showing signs of weakness. We are now below the 15,000 level, which does suggest that we are probably going to continue to go a little lower, perhaps closer to the 14,600 level. On the other hand, if we do take out the 15,250 level again, then we make looking at 16,000. Keep in mind that we're in the midst of earnings season, so the one thing you can probably count on is going to be a lot of volatility.
