AUD/USD Forex Signal: Recovery Stalls Ahead of US Inflation Data

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Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and a take-profit at 0.6480.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6380.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6400 and a take-profit at 0.6350.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.

The AUD/USD pair was flat on Wednesday morning as the market waited for important economic numbers from the United States, Australia, and China. The pair was trading at 0.6420, a few points below this week’s high of 0.6455.

US, Australia, and China data

The AUD/USD pair will be in the spotlight as investors focus on important economic numbers. The most important data will be the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will come out on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline CPI rose from 0.2% in July to 0.6% in August. This increase will translate to a YoY gain of 3.6%. Core CPI is expected to slip modestly from 4.7% to 4.3%.

A key factor that will affect inflation is gasoline, which has been in a slow upward trend in the past few months. The average gasoline price has jumped to $3.85, and the trend is expected to continue as crude oil price rises.

The US will next publish August’s retail sales numbers, which will provide more information about the state of the American consumer. Retail spending has been relatively strong in the past few months. This trend could change after millions of Americans start paying back their student loans.

The other important data that will move the AUD/USD pair will be Australia’s jobs numbers. Economists see the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.7% as the economy created over 24.3k jobs during the month.

The impact of these numbers will be minimal since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely leave interest rates unchanged in the coming meetings.

China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, will publish the latest economic numbers like retail sales and industrial production on Friday.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a tight range in the past few days. It was trading at 0.6422, a few points below this week’s high of 0.6454. It is consolidating at the 50-period moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Most importantly, the pair has formed a double bottom at 0.6360. In technical analysis, this pattern is usually a bullish sign. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance point at 0.64.85.

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