AUD/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Within Downtrend

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My previous signal on 25^th October was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when any of the support levels I identified were first reached.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades  may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6365, $0.6378, or $0.6391.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6330 or $0.6299.
• Place stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast last Wednesday that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to get some bullish bounce at the support level below at $0.6346. I was completely wrong as the price plummeted all day and cut easily through the first two support levels which it reached.

We have a long-term downwards trend in this currency pair, but it has become very choppy and slow since August. Within this longer-term move, we have a medium-term consolidation between $0.6400 and about $0.6275.

This consolidation is likely to continue until the FOMC release later tomorrow, so the best strategy until then will probably be looking to trade reversals from these extremes, especially from any bearish reversal near $0.6400 as this will be in line with the long-term trend.

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Employment Cost Index data at 12:30pm London time and a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 2pm. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD.

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