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Crude Oil Forecast: Will Continue to Watch Gaza

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

A decisive breakthrough above the $95 level could set the stage for a push toward $100. 

The Crude oil markets displayed signs of stabilization during Wednesday's trading session, with ongoing consolidation marking the longer-term outlook.

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The WTI Crude Oil market witnessed back-and-forth trading early on Wednesday, reflecting the prevalent noise in the market. Currently, it finds itself sandwiched between the 50-day Exponential Moving Average overhead and the 200-day EMA below. Such a scenario often gives rise to noisy price action, a common occurrence when caught between these two significant moving averages. As we navigate within this range, it's typical to anticipate a fair amount of support amid the turbulence.

In this context, market participants are closely monitoring the 200-day EMA, an area where many traders expect to find substantial support. Should the market succeed in surmounting the 50-day EMA, it could pave the way for a potential return to the $90 level. Notably, the ongoing Middle East conflict remains a focal point that continues to influence market dynamics.

Similarly, the Brent markets have exhibited a degree of stability, hovering around the 50-day EMA—a critical indicator garnering significant attention. All things considered; this market appears primed for continued choppiness. However, buyers appear poised to enter the fray. It's a common characteristic of the crude oil market to linger within consolidation ranges, and the current phase seems to be no exception. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical volatility hints at potential challenges ahead.

There is Potential for Short-term Rebounds

A decisive breakthrough above the $95 level could set the stage for a push toward $100. Conversely, a dip below the 200-Day EMA might see Brent targeting the $82 level, a historically supportive zone. Expectations point toward continued choppy price action, yet short-term rebounds seem likely, given lingering concerns regarding supply disruptions.

In the end, the Crude oil markets have found a semblance of stability, though geopolitical tensions continue to loom large. The tug-of-war between the 50-day and 200-Day EMAs is indicative of the ongoing noise and uncertainty in the market. Traders are closely monitoring key support levels and resistance points, poised to react as events unfold. Amidst this turbulence, the potential for short-term rebounds remains, fueled by persistent concerns over supply disruptions.
It is worth noting that the Israelis decided to halt the invasion of Gaza again, sending oil breaking down in the middle of the session. However, the market then bounced again to show resilience. This is a situation where the news flow will continue to be important. In other words, buckle up.

WTI Crude Oil

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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