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Crude Oil Forecast: Looks a Bit Erratic

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Remember, energy tends to be the first place we see a lot of people trying to price in economic pressures in both directions, as it is the “life’s blood” of economic activity in most major economies.

Crude oil markets experienced an initial downward movement at the beginning of Monday's trading session, but later exhibited signs of resurgence.

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At the onset of Monday's trading session, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market witnessed a minor retracement. However, it subsequently discovered underlying support that helped maintain a certain degree of buoyancy. It's important to note that the market has recently endured substantial selloffs, prompting a resurgence of interest in value-based trading opportunities.

Beneath the current market dynamics, the $75 level holds notable significance. This level has served as a crucial support juncture on multiple occasions in the past week. Furthermore, it carries psychological weight due to its round numerical value. Consequently, this level is likely to be considered a pivotal "line in the sand" for bullish sentiments. As long as prices remain above this threshold, there remains a possibility of oil experiencing a resurgence.

However, a breach of the $75 level could potentially lead to a swift downturn in market conditions. Such a development could result in a significant decline, possibly reaching the $70 level.

The Market is Worth Watching

  • At the same time, the Brent markets also underwent a minor retreat at the outset of the trading session, only to display signs of reinvigoration.
  • In this scenario, buyers have emerged to seize opportunities for value accumulation, infusing a modicum of momentum into the market.
  • If the market successfully surmounts the recent highs from the last few days, it is probable that it will set its sights on the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average, a significant point of interest in its own right. It's important to bear in mind that ongoing volatility in the Middle East conflict continues to influence market dynamics, and headline developments can precipitate substantial price fluctuations.

Similar to the WTI market, a breakdown below the $80 level in Brent could trigger substantial selling pressure, potentially leading to a rapid $5 decline if such a scenario were to materialize. In that scenario, we would probably see a lot of other markets pricing themselves in some type of massive recession or perhaps even something worse. Remember, energy tends to be the first place we see a lot of people trying to price in economic pressures in both directions, as it is the “life’s blood” of economic activity in most major economies. With that, crude oil continues to be a market worth watching for not only trading itself, but other markets as well.

Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil

Ready to trade the WTI/USD exchange rate? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out.

Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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