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The USD/JPY is sustaining highs above the 150.000 level and as of this writing is near the 150.650 ratio. Traders need to grasp the upwards climb the USD/JPY has sustained since the middle of January 2023 when the currency pair was near the 127.600 mark. The path higher has not been easy for speculators and reversals have littered the Forex landscape with plenty of costly decisions.
The USD/JPY has made an incremental climb higher in the wake of a higher U.S Federal Funds Rate, while the Bank of Japan has essentially sat on its hands. The difference in interest rates being offered from the U.S and Japan are noteworthy and important for traders and investors. The U.S key lending rate is at 5.50%, Japan’s is minus -0.10%.
USD/JPY: U.S Fed versus the Bank of Japan
Early last week the USD/JPY was trading near the 148.800 mark, but following last Tuesday’s Bank of Japan Monetary Policy State the currency pair actually began to show signs of bullish behavior again and move above the 151.390 mark. And then on late Wednesday of last week after the U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement in which the interest rate remained the same the USD/JPY began to move lower again, and by Thursday the pair was near 149.860. Friday’s weaker than expected jobs numbers from the U.S took the USD/JPY to the 149.200 vicinity.
However, since this low was reached on Friday a curious thing has happened, the bullish trend of the USD/JPY has mounted again and yesterday’s trading hit a high of nearly 150.700, which the pair is within sight of now. This morning’s high it should be noted touched around the 150.750 ratio. It appears while traders are nervous about the prospects of a Bank of Japan potential intervention to protect the Japanese Yen that financial institutions continue to be buyers of the USD/JPY. Simply put, the firepower of the BoJ is definitely strong, but until they put their money where their mouth is speculators will continue to nibble away with buying positions.
The 151.000 USD/JPY Ratio is a Target and a Nervous One
- Global markets remain fragile. Risk appetite has been seen the past few days, but conditions remain nervous.
- The USD/JPY 151.000 mark is certainly a target of traders, but psychologically they likely fear a Bank of Japan intervention could happen if the BoJ believes this height is overbought.
- Trades need to be extremely careful, conservative leverage is stressed at these values for the USD/JPY.
- Traders looking for downside momentum to suddenly emerge would be taking a bold path and they would need to protect their positions with stop losses in case momentum upwards continues.
USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 150.750
Current Support: 150.600
High Target: 151.190
Low Target: 149.850
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