As WTI Crude Oil gets set to begin trading on Monday the commodity went into the weekend near a cash price of 71.360 USD per barrel. This price is near the lows Crude Oil touched on Wednesday of last week as the commodity struggled to attain any upwards mobility. A low last week was made on Thursday when WTI Crude Oil flirted with 69.000 USD. The depth of this value had last been seen late in June.
Day traders who consider themselves commodity experts may feel inclined to believe WTI Crude Oil is priced too low. However, even if this notion proves to be a proper conclusion in the mid-term, the current values being demonstrated in the marketplace continue to suggest that dynamic commodity trading forces are in play that only the big players understand.
Demand and Supply are Debated but Largely Unknown Factors in WTI Crude Oil
Demand for WTI Crude Oil it has been argued by some analysts actually remains high, but that supply levels in the U.S have become consistently good again and this has led to a reduction in the price of the energy. However, narrative is being hotly debated and the fact that OPEC and other Crude Oil producing nations have lowered output shows that a complex puzzle must be considered regarding fundamentals as they try to increase the price of their cherished commodity. And unfortunately within WTI Crude Oil, facts on the ground for day traders are hard to attain, making the commodity technically speculative at all times.
- Psychological support proved to be vulnerable near the 70.000 USD level late this week.
- Upwards momentum in WTI Crude Oil continues to be hard to find for speculative bullish traders who want to wager on upside reversals.
- The inability of WTI Crude Oil to climb above the 72.000 USD mark since Wednesday of last week will create additional pressure on larger traders who may have bought ‘long positions’ above this mark and decided to hold onto their trading positions going into this weekend.
Risk Appetite in U.S Markets has not Equated into a Bullish Run for WTI Crude Oil
As risk appetite in global markets has shown some aggressive buying among many assets over the past month, particularly U.S equity indices, this has not translated into higher energy prices. WTI Crude Oil and the other energy resources are trading near important lows, and they have yet to show the ability to produce sustained reversals. While WTI Crude Oil traders may believe the commodity needs to go higher, they should remember ‘need’ is only a perception in the actual marketplace. Crude Oil has traded at lower values before and technical traders looking at six month and one year charts can see this clearly.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 67.100 to 76.200 USD.
Last week’s highs in WTI Crude Oil occurred as trading opened last Monday. The ability for the commodity to suddenly burst higher is always a potential, but the incremental pressure downward since late September of this year should be given attention by day traders. The urge to be part of a strong reversal higher and capture solid profits in WTI Crude Oil is certainly tempting, but it also may lead to staggeringly bad losses if a speculator is not careful. If WTI Crude Oil opens tomorrow with an inability to challenge the 72.000 mark during the day, this could be interpreted as a bad signal via behavioral sentiment.
If WTI Crude Oil actually tracks lower and the 70.000 comes into view again this would be dangerous. Any sustained price momentum below this level could cause a flurry of volatility which could drive the commodity to new lows as large traders cover their wagers. Looking for a sudden turnaround in WTI Crude Oil will take sustained trading above 73.000 USD and beyond. However, it needs to be repeated the trend lower in WTI Crude Oil cannot be easily dismissed when near-term speculative positions are being considered. Just because you do not think the value of something can go lower, doesn’t mean you are correct.
