The move of the EUR/USD upwards in November was remarkable considering the currency pair started the month near the 1.05200 ratio on the 1st. The low to start November was in fact the low for the month. The high for the EUR/USD was achieved early yesterday, the 29th of November, when the currency pair flirted briefly with the 1.10150 ratio. The current price for the EUR/USD is near the 1.09240 mark within an active Forex market.
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Behavioral sentiment in financial institutions have certainly believed the EUR/USD was likely oversold in October and when inflation data from the U.S came in slightly below forecasts and the U.S Federal Reserve acknowledged a pause in the Federal Funds Rate was being considered, this set the table for bullish traders to pursue attack mode. On the 14th of November the EUR/USD had achieved incremental buying action since the start of the month and was trading near the 1.06990 ratio.
EUR/USD Burst Higher and Sustained Upwards Climb
Late on the 14th and into the 15th of November the EUR/USD erupted higher and the 1.08870 ratio was seen as financial institutions bought quickly. And the highs achieved in the middle of the week were sustained, and by Friday the 17th the 1.09000 mark was being hit. Price action in the EUR/USD has taken on a rather mixed range since then, yes, a high for the month was hit yesterday as more buying sprung forth, but cautious reversals lower have been seen.
Speculative conditions in Forex including the EUR/USD have taken place as financial institutions have had their mid-term outlooks confirmed, this via inflation numbers from the U.S which are starting to show signs of erosion. This puts the Federal Reserve in a position in which it is likely going to have to sound rather neutral about its monetary policy in December during its FOMC Meeting. However, the U.S economy has been stronger than many have anticipated; this does create the potential for inflation to remain stubborn and is something to keep an eye on. Yesterday’s GDP numbers from the U.S were strong.
Higher EUR/USD Price and Potential Equilibrium
- If risk appetite remains strong globally within equity markets, and U.S Treasuries can produce signs of slightly lower yields, this would help the EUR/USD sustain its higher values which have been achieved in November and open the door to more gains for the currency pair in December.
- The question day traders need to ask is if fair market value for the EUR/USD may have been found by financial institutions for the moment. If this is the case, then trading may remain choppy over the next couple of weeks.
- However, on the 13th of December the U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement and this will certainly factor into EUR/USD trading.
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