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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Breakout from Triangle Pennant Imminent

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

The technical picture is no much more bullish as we have seen the US Dollar start to weaken again, and the price here begin to test a very strong and long-term resistance level confluent with the big round number at $1.1000. 

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My previous EUR/USD signal on 12th December could have given a profitable short trade from the bearish reversal at the resistance level at $1.0773.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only. 

Short Trade Idea

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1008.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0955, $1.0930, $1.0910, or $1.0848.
  •  Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday last week, I wrote that if we got two consecutive higher hourly closes above $1.0773 following the London open, the price would be likely to continue rising to $1.0815. If the price closed above $1.0815 at the end of the New York session, that would be a very bullish sign.

This was a good call as the first part did come true and lead to a rise to $1.0815.

The technical picture is no much more bullish as we have seen the US Dollar start to weaken again, and the price here begin to test a very strong and long-term resistance level confluent with the big round number at $1.1000. We are very close to having a confirmed, valid, long-term bullish trend also.

The shorter-term technical show the price remains constrained within a narrowing triangle pennant and it will have to make a breakout soon. This could be the catalyst for a major bullish breakout into long-term highs above $1.1000.

I will be happy to go long here if we get a New York close above the resistance level at $1.1008.

EUR/USD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Final GDP and Unemplyment Claims data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the EUR.  

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Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

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