My previous signal on 3rd January was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6737, $0.6754, or $0.6775.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6671, $0.6654, or $0.6634.
- Place stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous forecast almost one week ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was falling but running out of momentum. The fall was driven by a widespread advance in the US Dollar, which was against the long-term trend.
I thought the trade to watch out for would be two consecutive hourly closes above $0.6775, but in fact the price fell during most of the day before regaining some ground.
There has been no dramatic change in the technical picture – we continue to see a slowing of bearish momentum, which may now have slowed down to become a neutral consolidation. The price chart below shows that for several days the price has effectively been ranging without bias between $0.6671 and $0.6737.
The best approach today will likely be to trade reversals at either extreme, and just play the range.
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However, the Aussie is quite weak, and may become even more so later today if inflation data comes in even lower than the expected 4.4.% annualized rate.
Regarding the AUD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 12:30am London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the USD.
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