WTI Crude (US Oil)
The crude oil market made an initial attempt to rally during Thursday's trading session but encountered resistance. This resistance is attributed to several factors, including concerns surrounding the upcoming jobs report and the proximity to the upper limit of the consolidation range currently taking shape.
In particular, the $75 level stands as a substantial barrier to upward movement. Furthermore, the presence of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average in this vicinity adds to the caution for potential buyers. On the flip side, the $68 level beneath serves as a major support level when analyzing longer-term charts. Consequently, breaking through this support level is expected to be challenging. As a result, the market is likely to continue its range-bound movement, leading to a relatively neutral outlook. However, opportunities for potential trade may arise when the market reaches its outer boundaries.
Brent (UK Oil)
The Brent market echoes a similar sentiment, with the $80.50 level identified as a significant resistance point. The 50-day EMA aligns closely with the $80 level, reinforcing the resistance. Conversely, the $72 level beneath holds significance as both recent and long-term trading data indicate strong support. That being said, you will have to keep an eye on the Red Sea and the latest attacks on shipping. This throws a bit of a monkey wrench into the situation so keep that in mind. It’s worth noting that recent attacks have caused spikes in price, at least in the short term.
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In essence, both crude oil markets are characterized by a grinding back-and-forth movement as they attempt to determine their long-term direction. Some market analysts view this phase as potential accumulation, suggesting that prices may eventually move higher. This perspective is contingent on central banks worldwide potentially injecting the markets with additional liquidity, a possibility that has garnered attention.
At the end of the day, the crude oil markets face resistance barriers and support levels that have influenced their recent trading behaviors. The proximity to these boundaries has resulted in a relatively neutral stance by most longer-term traders, with potential opportunities for range-bound trading. The outlook remains uncertain, and market participants are closely monitoring central bank actions, which could significantly impact the market's future direction.
Potential signal: if for some reason the Brent market breaks above the $75 level, I am a buyer. I would have a stop loss at $73.83 and a target of $78.03 above.
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