Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2680 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
The GBP/USD pair held quite well in the overnight session as focus moved to the upcoming US and UK services PMI numbers. The pair was trading at 1.2693, an important level of resistance. This price was a few points above last week’s low of 1.2600.
Services PMI numbers ahead
The GBP/USD did not have any major catalyst on Monday. This could change on Tuesday as S&P Global publishes the latest services PMI numbers from the UK and the US. These are crucial figures that will provide more color about the health of the biggest sectors in the economies.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the figures to reveal that the services sector did well in February. In the UK, the expectation is that the services PMI rose to 50.3 while the composite PMI jumped to 53.3. A PMI figure of 50 and above is a sign that a sector expanded.
In the UK, the numbers are expected to reveal that the services PMI fell to 51.3. A separate report by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) is expected to reveal that the non-manufacturing figure came in at 51.3.
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These numbers will come a few days after the two organizations published weak manufacturing figures. Manufacturing activity in key countries like the United States is still contracting as demand slows.
The US will also release the latest factory orders numbers. This report is expected to show that orders rose by 0.3% in January after rising by 0.2% in the previous month. While these numbers are important, their impact on the GBP/USD pair will be limited.
The most important report will come on Wednesday when ADP will release the private payrolls report. It will come two days ahead of the official NFP data.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair rose to the crucial resistance level at 1.2705, which was its highest point on February 22nd. It has moved above the 25-period moving average and the ascending trendline shown in red.
Its price on Tuesday was also important because it coincided with the highest swing on February 13th. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral level. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bullish as long as it moves above the important resistance point at 1.2706. A move above this price will push it to the next psychological point at 1.2750.
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