Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2575.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.2635 and a take-profit at 1.2720.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2575.
The GBP/USD pair retreated on Wednesday morning as the US dollar crawled back after the mixed consumer confidence and durable goods orders reports. The pair dropped to 1.2627, lower than this week’s high of 1.2667.
US consumer confidence slips
The GBP/USD pulled back after the Conference Board published a weak consumer confidence report. In it, the organization downgraded its February confidence from 106.5 to 104.8. At the same time, confidence slipped to 104.7 in March, lower than the median estimate of 106.9.
Consumer confidence has dropped modestly amid concerns about the US inflation and rising gasoline prices. Data by AAA shows that the average gasoline price has jumped from $3.1 a few months ago to $3.5. This trend may continue as the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has jumped to $82.
There are signs that inflation could remain at an elevated level for a while. Analysts expect that the price of basic products could rise after the Baltimore bridge accident. Shipping companies are now dealing with this crisis, coupled with the Panama drought and the security risks in the Middle East.
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Another report showed that the country’s house price index (HPI) dropped by 0.1% in January after rising by 0.1% in the previous month. It dropped from 6.7% to 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. Still, house prices have held steady in the past few months even as interest rates rose.
Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose by 1.4% in February while core orders rose by 0.5%. The two figures were higher than the expected 0.4% and 1.2%.
The GBP/USD pair also retreated after a statement by Catherine Mann, a Bank of England official. She warned that the market was pricing in too many interest rate cuts this year. Economists expect that the BoE will deliver three cuts starting from August.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate erased some of the gains it made on Monday even after the relatively hawkish statement by Catherine Mann. It retreated from a high of 1.2667 to 1.2630. The pair has moved below the 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The Chaikin Oscillator, which measures the accumulation and distribution of the MACD, has moved below the neutral line and is pointing downwards. The same is true with the Triple Exponential Average (TRIX) and other oscillators.
Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next reference level being at 1.2575, its lowest point on March 22nd.
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